2023 Year-End Market Review
City House Country Home, your Lake Simcoe waterfront experts, is a real estate practice operating under the brokerage, Chestnut Park Real Estate Limited—an exclusive affiliate of Christie’s International Real Estate—is pleased to present our Annual Lake Simcoe Waterfront Report. Our extensive experience in this market enables us to provide in-depth insights into the trends and dynamics shaping Lake Simcoe Waterfront properties in Georgina, Beaverton, Orillia, Oro-Medonte, Innisfil (including Barrie), and Ramara.
We focus exclusively on direct and indirect lakefront property sales on Lake Simcoe & Lake Couchiching, excluding canal and riverfront properties. Our data is sourced exclusively from The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board.
Why Invest in Waterfront Real Estate?
Lake Simcoe is often favored for its proximity to Toronto and year-round accessibility, which is especially appealing given the shift to remote work and an aging population seeking permanent lakefront residences. Contrasted with Muskoka Lakes, Lake Simcoe offers a different lifestyle and set of recreational opportunities.
Executive Summary
2023 witnessed a down market characterized by a decrease in the total number of sales compared to the preceding three years. Notably, the lower volume of sales can impact the average price of homes, especially in areas like Oro-Medonte where fewer than 15 properties sold in 2023. Despite the overall downturn, Innisfil reported a robust 24 sales with an impressive 29.3% increase in the average price since 2022.
Market Highlights
- Waterfront Sales Decline: Over the past four years, waterfront sales have declined by 62%, with 2023 recording 87 sales, a 17% decrease from the previous year.
- Average Sale Price: While Lake Simcoe waterfront decreased marginally by -3.8%, certain areas like Georgina and Innisfil saw significant increases in the average price.
- Regional Analysis: Each area displayed unique trends, with Oro-Medonte historically reporting the highest average prices due to the luxury market. Conversely, Beaverton saw a significant decrease due to limited inventory and lower market values.
Key Attributes of Lake Simcoe
- Diverse Shorelines: The 240 km shoreline offers varied experiences, from the tranquil and less developed north end to the bustling southern areas.
- Environmental & Recreational Diversity: Each side of the lake offers distinct natural environments and recreational opportunities, catering to a wide range of preferences.
Financing A Waterfront Property
Navigating the financing landscape can be complex. Darlene Hanley of Hanley Mortgage Group highlights several factors to consider, including loan-to-value ratios, down payments, and the impact of the mortgage stress test.
Forecast for 2024
Should the Bank of Canada rate drop in spring 2024, we anticipate several potential effects on the recreational property market, including lower borrowing costs, increased demand, improved consumer confidence, and potential investment shifts.
Average Sale Prices in 2023
Lake Simcoe waterfront decreased marginally over the past year by -3.8%. The average selling price in 2023 was $1,740,651 compared to $1,810,108. Two key areas however, reported significant increases to the average price including Georgina at 16.5% and Innisfil at 29.3%. Oro-Medonte reported -27% decline to the average price of $1,987,100.
Georgina is typically a very active market for waterfront sales however, in 2023 there were only 17 sales reported, a decrease of 34.5% year-over-year.
Beaverton’s shoreline offers direct waterfront to most waterfront properties. The water quality is superior to some areas further south and the size of the lots tend to be larger than those available in other areas. Beaverton’s average price of $1,175,114 decreased by -32.2%. This is primarily due to the lack of available inventory and lower market value of the properties sold compared to the previous 2 years.
Orillia reported 8 sales with an average selling price of $1,636,005, an increase of +2.5%.
Oro-Medonte is considered a luxury waterfront community due to the size and quality of the homes and the large lot size. 2023 reported 15 sales with the average price of $1,987,100, a decrease of -27%.
Innisfil’s average selling price was $2,157,666. As mentioned earlier, this area of Lake Simcoe was the most active resale market in 2023.
Ramara reported 14 sales, a decrease of -59%. The average price however, increased by +5.0% to $1,508,245. Sales of canal front properties in Lagoon City are excluded. We only include direct or indirect detached lakefront properties in our analysis.
2023 Average Sale Price – Year-Over-Year Change
| AREA | 2022 AVG. SOLD PRICE | 2023 AVG. SOLD PRICE | % CHANGE |
| GEORGINA | $1,699,723.00 | $1,979,776.00 | 0.165 |
| BEAVERTON | $1,733,639.00 | $1,175,114.00 | -32.20% |
| ORILLIA | $1,596,250.00 | $1,636,005.00 | 0.025 |
| ORO/MEDONTE | $2,725,062.00 | $1,987,100.00 | -27.00% |
| INNISFIL | $1,668,907.00 | $2,157,666.00 | 0.293 |
| RAMARA | $ 1,437,072.00 | $ 1,508,245.00 | 0.18 |
| TOTAL | $ 1,810,108.00 | $ 1,740,651.00 | -3.80% |
2023 Average Sale Price – Year-Over-Year Change
| AREA | 2022 TOTAL SALES | 2023 TOTAL SALES | % CHANGE |
| GEORGINA | 26 | 17 | -35% |
| BEAVERTON | 7 | 9 | -29% |
| ORILLIA | 9 | 8 | -11% |
| ORO/MEDONTE | 12 | 15 | -25% |
| INNISFIL | 17 | 24 | 0.41 |
| RAMARA | 34 | 14 | -59% |
| TOTAL | 105 | 87 | -17.10% |
Key Attributes of Lake Simcoe
Lake Simcoe’s 240 km of shoreline offers many options which, are primarily related to their natural environment and recreational opportunities. The east side offers magnificent sunsets, more privacy, less boat traffic, and better sailing conditions due to westerly winds. In contrast, the west side boasts breathtaking sunrises, soft winds, making it better for swimming and lounging on the shoreline.
The north shore offers southerly exposure and a more secluded and tranquil environment, often with less developed shorelines and lower population density. This results in a quieter atmosphere and potentially less recreational traffic on the water. Additionally, the natural landscapes and ecosystems might differ from the more developed southern regions, offering a distinct experience for visitors and residents alike. In particular, the Kempenfelt Bay and Shanty Bay area is a sought-after community for high-net-worth clientele desirous of owning a luxury lakefront property.
Our extensive experience in the Lake Simcoe recreational waterfront market positions us uniquely to guide you through these dynamic times. For a comprehensive understanding of this market and to explore investment opportunities, please contact us for the full report.
If you would like to obtain a copy of our full report, please email us at Roxanne@ChestnutPark.com or call 289-338-0767.
Please go to www.CityHouseCountryHome.com for additional real estate-related articles and featured properties currently for sale.
All data used in this report was obtained from The Toronto Real Estate Board.
This publication is not to be copied or duplicated without the express written permission of Roxanne Finn.
This publication is not intended to solicit buyers or sellers currently under contract with a brokerage.
